Mock Bracket Breakdown

A highly unscientific analysis:

Round 1:

  • 50% of responders correctly picked The Cardturner to advance.
  • 83% of responders correctly picked The Demon King to advance.
  • 100% of responders correctly picked A Face Like Glass to advance.
  • 1 responder picked Kat, Incorrigible to advance.
  • 83% of responders correctly picked The King of Attolia to advance.
  • 83% of responders correctly picked The Road Home to advance.
  • No one picked The School Story to advance.
  • 66% of responders correctly picked Year of the Griffin to advance.

First, that 50/50 split on the The Cardturner vs. Chime matchup is the least surprising result, I think!

Second, I’m amazed that everyone picked A Face Like Glass to advance! I’m going to float a theory later about this.

Third, I’m surprised at how few people backed Crown Duel vs. The Demon King; I’m not sure what was behind everyone’s thought process, but I’m curious.

Fourth, look how much of an underdog Kat, Incorrigible and The School Story each were in their respective battles!

Fifth, I’m going to posit that YA usually has an edge in people’s minds, as seen in the Jellicoe Road vs. Kat, Incorrigible, The King of Attolia vs. King of Shadows, and Sorcery and Cecelia vs. The School Story matchups – which makes is amazing that two MG(ish) books ended up in the final round.

Round 2:

  • No one picked The Cardturner to advance to the third round.
  • 83% of responders picked A Face Like Glass to advance.
  • 33% picked The Road Home to advance.
  • No one picked Year of the Griffin to advance.

First, this is a little skewed, because this doesn’t necessary represent The Cardturner vs. The Demon King, but rather the results of everyone’s mock matchups. It’s interesting that so many people still backed A Face Like Glass!

Second, Year of the Griffin was a real underdog, too, huh.

Round 3:

  • 66% picked A Face Like Glass to advance.
  • No one picked Year of the Griffin.

Final Round:

  • No one picked Year of the Griffin.

First: A Face Like Glass hasn’t even been published in the US; I can’t believe it came across as such a strong contender!

Second: I can only speak for myself, but whenever I had a really hard time choosing between two books – most notably in my Round 2 mock matchup of The King of Attolia vs. The Road Home – I went with the more unique book. Which is obviously subjective – and yet I’m wondering if its obvious freshness and unique perspective is what gave A Face Like Glass such mock bracket staying power.

Third: Yay subjectivity! There really was no way  of accurately predicting this.

Thanks to all the participants for sending your mock brackets!

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5 thoughts on “Mock Bracket Breakdown

  1. Not knowing who submitted brackets, the first result might simply have been explained by people knowing the types of books I’m more likely to enjoy. I know Katie called which one I was advancing. I wouldn’t be surprised if others could have done so.

    1. I’m terrible at brackets, because I always pick what I want to win – which is not the point. And yet I do it every time. So it surprised me, how some books were almost universally seen as weaker, and some as stronger (in contrast to what actually advanced)!

  2. I went with my knowledge of a lot of the judges’ reading preferences. Which didn’t really work out for me at all! I also tried to look at everyone’s shelves on GoodReads, but that didn’t help either.

    I actually did originally have Crown Duel beating The Demon King! But then I read Tori’s writeup for her, so I knew what she picked before I submitted my bracket. (I knew or had a good idea about 5 of the first round matchups and STILL didn’t have much success in my predictions!)

    1. The funny thing is that even for the people who clearly accounted for preference – some choices were completely wrong, and some books, like A Face Like Glass – emerged as completely dominant! I thought that was so interesting!

  3. Beth, you have not suggested the other method of picking winners, one that is particularly useful when you’ve read a very small percentage of the books when submitting a bracket. It invovles going on GoodReads and picking the one with the highest rating. Or alternatively, picking the one you like the description of better.

    It was obviously an excellent system, as my bracket was exceptionally accurate.

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